Market analyst Viktoria Bereshchak shared in an exclusive comment to Novyny.LIVE what buyers and sellers should prepare for in 2025.
New buildings Market Outlook
The real estate market has faced significant challenges due to the full-scale war. The consequences are still far from being completely addressed, considering rising housing costs, decreasing demand, declining real purchasing power, and other factors.
What to Expect in the newly built building Market
It is difficult to predict the long-term situation as the market reacts to geopolitical developments. This includes the newly elected U.S. president Donald Trump and his White House policies. Based on objective factors not influenced by international conditions, it can be assumed that an average price increase will occur at a maximum rate of 15% annually.
The cost of construction rose by at least 45-47% in 2023 due to increased material costs and construction works. At the same time, demand for real estate is nearly zero. In specific segments, demand is concentrated at levels up to 20%, and this is contingent on several factors, noted an expert.
These factors include the good reputation of a developer who continues to build and fulfill obligations despite regular missile strikes, damage to energy infrastructure, and more. Additionally, the product must meet consumer expectations, which have shifted towards:
- Multi-functional quarter-clusters
- Closed recreational complexes with mixed infrastructure
Buyers will face rising real estate prices in 2025, provided the market remains relatively stable. The 15% forecast could increase if production capacities for various construction materials are lost or if mobilization processes exacerbate the shortage of qualified workers.
"I believe 2025 will be decisive for developers. It will clearly show who has the potential to remain in the market, grow, and be a full-fledged player, and who is on a path of self-destruction or, in other words, voluntarily exiting the market," concluded Viktoria Bereshchak.
Secondary Market Outlook
What to Expect in the Secondary Market
The secondary real estate market largely depends on human factors. If there are new internal migration shifts, regions will see increased activity in both rentals and buying-selling transactions. Major hub cities like Lviv and Kyiv have more active markets. As demonstrated by the 2024 trends, considering the dollar exchange rate and other factors, the prices of liquid one-bedroom apartments could rise by 10-12%, while two- and three-bedroom apartments may see a 6-8% annual increase.
Regarding the "єОселя" Program
The program could remain a key driver if sufficient funding is provided, and it remains stable without revisions to budget allocation decisions. A minimum of 17-20 billion UAH annually must be allocated to the "єОселя" program, added the analyst.
However, it is essential to consider the purchasing power of Ukrainians. It has declined as people are psychologically unprepared to invest significant amounts in real estate due to the uncertainty of geopolitical events surrounding Ukraine. An optimistic scenario would be to recover the overall demand in terms of sales to at least 10-15%.
The expert believes that developers are unlikely to restructure their business processes to avoid relying solely on buyer funds for construction. They need to seek investment partners interested in residential construction projects. If companies do not begin cooperating with international players who are exploring the Ukrainian market due to its post-victory potential, developers' activities may undergo a reorganization in the worst possible way.